NCHALADA LIV    NCHALADA Home page    NCHALADA Archive    NCHALADA LVI

Please join two interesting discussions on historical astronomy

Saturday, November 11, 2000

NCHALADA LV

Northern California Historical Astronomy

Luncheon and Discussion Association

Our first gathering at new

Chabot Space & Science Center, 10000 Skyline Boulevard, Oakland

http://www.chabotspace.org/visit/directions.asp

(Parking costs $4 in the structure, or free in the overflow lot)

in the Board Room, Dellums Building (West end)

Morning discussion, 10 - 12:30:

Can’t Win Them All

Chair: Bruce R. Mehlman

Lunch at a local restaurant, then a brief business meeting.

Afternoon discussion, 2 - 5 PM:

The Depopulation of the Solar System

Chair: John Westfall

Association of Lunar and Planetary Observers

People who bring munchies are very popular.

For further information, contact:

Norm Sperling

EVERYTHING IN THE UNIVERSE

413 Poinsettia Avenue

San Mateo, California 94403

Phone & fax: 650-573-7125

nsperling@california.com

www.everythingintheuniv.com


Can’t Win Them All

Bruce R. Mehlman, Chair

To air is human, so I'm going to air some errors. Great scientist have indeed made great blunders. I've chosen a few to mention, and missed many others. This is a discussion, not a lecture, so I earnestly invite all participants to bring up other examples. You are also invited to defend what I'm calling blunders or to suggest that the scientists I mention (I'm talking Hoyle here, not Newton) weren't all that great.

Fishing is one thing, throwing sticks of dynamite into a trout pond is another. I will not be discussing the astrological beliefs held by most astronomers until the seventeenth century.

Kepler believed that the placement of the planets was governed by the five platonic solids. Was this based on mysticism, or on a search for beauty, symmetry and simplicity?

From Kepler's platonic solids I will segue to "Bode's" "Law". The quotes are because Bode didn't invent it and it isn't a law. Even before the discovery of Neptune, it had a major mathematical/observational flaw that nobody seems to have noticed.

This is a History of Astronomy group, so I will discuss an indubitably great astronomer's theory of history. Newton attempted to show that large kingdoms and great empires were a relatively recent development. A lot of facts we have now were unavailable to him, but he still had to go through some major contortions to ignore Egypt.

Was G. D. Cassini an Anglophobe, or just a conservative? His belief that the earth was a prolate spheroid may have been a rejection of Newton. Partial rejection of the heliocentric theory (he accepted it as a calculation method) was probably a resistance to novel ideas. His belief that Kepler was wrong, that the planets moved in Cassinian Ovals rather than ellipses, wasn't conservative, it was a novel but wrong idea.

A truly great scientist (just my own personal bias here) would make a great recovery from a great blunder. Harlow Shapely went from a belief that the spiral nebulae were gas clouds within our galaxy to doing serious work on their nature as other galaxies.


At the other extreme, and all too common, one can hold onto a belief like a pit bull despite all evidence to the contrary. For a long time, the belief that the universe had a beginning seemed like a philosophical and scientific step backward. Fred Hoyle's blunder wasn't his initial steady state cosmology, it was (and is) his refusal to acknowledge the new evidence against it.


There is so much material available on the web for Kepler and Newton that I will give here a reference to references for each of them. These are from Wolfgang R. Dick's web pages for the History of Astronomy group of the International Astronomical Union.
http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~pbrosche/persons/pers_kepler.html
http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~pbrosche/persons/pers_newton_i.html

My essay on Bode's Law
http://www.theeel.com/~bruce/histastro/Bode.html

Cassini article in Encyclopedia Brittanica
http://britannica.com/bcom/eb/article/2/0,5716,20982+1,00.html

Links to several articles on the Shapely Curtis debate
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/debate/debate20.html

A biography of Fred Hoyle
http://www.phys-astro.sonoma.edu/BruceMedalists/Hoyle/index.html

The Cambridge Illustrated History of Astronomy, Michael Hoskin, ed., Cambridge U. Press, 1997
Watchers of the Skies, Willy Ley, Viking Press, 1966
Pioneers of Science, Oliver Lodge, Dover, 1960
Isaac Newton, Historian, Frank E. Manuel, Harvard University Press, 1963
Theories of the Universe, Milton K. Munitz, ed., The Free Press
A History of Astronomy, A. Pannekoek, Dover, 1989
Treasury of World Science, Dagobert D. Runes, ed., Philosophical Library, 1962
Man's View of the Universe, Gerald E. Tauber, Crown Publishers, 1979
And There Was Light, Rudolf Thiel, Alfred A. Knopf, 1957
A History of the Warfare of Science with Theology, Andrew Dickson White, The Free Press, 1965

 


THE DEPOPULATION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM

Discussion Outline for NCHALADA, November 11, 2000. J. Westfall

I. Before the Solar System

Ley's "First Era" of planetary exploration (naked-eye).

The Platonic-Aristotelian-Ptolemaic World View--

Sun, Moon, Planets fundamentally different from Earth, incapable of life.

Dissenting (Pro-Life) Views--

Democritus, Metrodorus, Epicurus, Lucretius, Plutarch, Seneca, Lucian, Nicholas

of Cusa (Cusanus), William of Ockham.

Adoption of the Geocentric View by the Church (life confined to Earth)--

Augustine, Roger Bacon, Aquinas.

II. Life Comes to the Solar System

Ley's "Second Era" of planetary exploration (telescopic).

The Plurality of Worlds Argument [note; "World" = inhabited planet]--

Copernicanism (Earth not unique, including in having life).

Plenitude (God could make worlds, so He does).

Analogy ("If the Earth is a planet, are not the planets Earths?")

Functionality (planets, moons, etc., aren't there for nothing).

Influential Pro-lifers--

Bruno, Kepler, Huygens, Thomas Paine, Schroeter, W. Herschel, Flammarion,

Proctor, Lowell, W.H. Pickering; Mormons, Seventh-Day Adventists.

Dissenting Views--

Whewell, Hegel.

The Whewell Debate (reaction to Of the Plurality of Worlds: An Essay [1853]).

[Some pro-pluralist statistics: Books 70%, Articles/reviews "about two-thirds",

Anglicans 71%, Other religious 56%, Scientists 83%]

Apparent Theoretical Evidence--

Nebular Hypothesis (Swedenborg, 1734/Kant, 1755/La Place, 1796; later modified

by Faye, 1884; George Darwin, 1885): Planetary systems common; inner

planets possibly older than outer ones (Jupiter-Neptune); Mars possibly older than Earth and Venus younger than Earth.

Kirchhoff's Principles of Spectral Analysis (1858): Sun, stars, planetary atmospheres

composed of same elements as known on Earth; strengthens analogy

argument.

Charles Darwin, Origin of Species (1859): Mechanism for development of life

elsewhere, not just on Earth.

Apparent Observational Evidence--

Lomonosov and Venus' atmosphere (1761); confirmed by Schroeter (1792) and

Herschel (1793).

Venus atmospheric water vapor reported at 1874 and 1882 transits (spectroscopy;

Tacchini and Ricco, Young).

Gruithuisen-lunarians and venerians (1822).

The "Moon Hoax" (1835).

The oblong Moon (Hansen, 1852; about a 20-mile "bulge").

Schiaparelli and Lowell-Mars' polar caps, clouds, seasonal changes ("wave of

darkening"), and "canals".

W.H. Pickering and lunar life.

The first radio astronomy-signals from Mars? (Marconi, 1920).

III. Stirrings of Doubt

Constraints on Life--

How did life originate? Spontaneous generation disproven; panspermia theory takes

its place.

"Life" narrowed down to carbon-water life ("life as we know it"); hence the quest

for an atmosphere, preferably with water vapor.

An influential anti-life writer: Spencer Jones (1940).

Stefan-Boltzman Law (predicts temperatures of "black bodies", 1879)--

Most planets too hot or too cold for life as we know it.

Perhaps life rescued by clouds, twilight and polar zones (if too hot); greenhouse

effect, internal heat (if too cold).

Maxwell's Kinetic Theory of Gasses (c. 1871)--

Based on their gravity fields and temperatures. many bodies would have lost their

atmospheres.

The Moon as the First Victim--

"Seas" dried up (doubts about water oceans as early as Hevelius, 1647).

Atmosphere is lost (e.g., Boscovich, 1753).

Epitaph written by Beer and Maedler (1837).

Mercury--

Atmosphere is lost.

Belief in locked rotation--most of planet too hot or too cold, although a 47*-wide

librational ("twilight") zone should exist (Schiaparelli, 1882).

Photometry indicates Moon-like surface (Zoellner, 1874).

Venus-"Earth's Twin"?-

Clouds obvious; first thought to be water.

The search for water vapor (although not falsifying water vapor below cloud deck);

contradictory results, Adams and Dunham (Mt. Wilson, negative, 1932)

Dollfus (1963, positive), Bottema et al. (1964, positive), Strong (1965,

marginally positive).

No oxygen found (Nicholson and St. John at Mt. Wilson, 1922).

Detection of carbon dioxide (Adams and Dunham, 1932).

The challenge of temperature measurement; Adell believes surface hotter than 50*C

(323 K; Lowell Obs., 1937); Wildt argues over 408 K (1940); Mayer,

McCullogh and Sloanaker report "surface" temperature of 600 K at 1-cm

wavelength (1956); other microwave brightness temperatures between 380-

680 K reported, depending on wavelength (1960-65).

Competing Models:

Arrhenius' swampy planet (1918).

A torrid desert (e.g., St. John and Nicholson, Mt. Wilson, 1922; Urey, 1952).

Seas of selzer water (Menzel and Whipple, 1955).

Seas of petroleum (Hoyle, 1955).

Mars-an "Abode of Life"?--

The gradual loss of atmosphere.

Seeking oxygen and water vapor: lots of CO2, no oxygen (Kuiper, 1949); upper

limits of precipitable water 0.01 mm (Adams and Dunham, 1937); raised to

0.08 mm (Kiess and Korliss, 1957).

Big new telescopes don't show canals.

Dark areas don't have high-IR reflectivity of chorophyl-based vegetation (but

possibly lichens).

Non-life explanations of "wave of darkening"--Arrhenius, "hygroscopic salts"

(1918); McLaughlin, drifting volcanic ash (1956); Sagan and Pollack,

drifting limonite dust (1969).

The Outer Solar System--

Small bodies such as asteroids and satellites shouldn't have atmospheres.

Giant planets:

Atmospheres poisonous gasses; they may have no solid surfaces.

However, at some depth there are reasonable temperatures and pressures;

but convection currents would make life a challenge.

Summary at the End of the "Second Era".

Venus and Mars the most viable (pun) candidates.

Mercury's librational zone still possible (but no atmosphere).

Surprising little interest in Titan's newly-found atmosphere (Kuiper, 1944).

Chemical-origin of life theory predominates; first steps in laboratory research.

Some interesting late pro-lifers:

Mercury--Willy Ley (1966), possible life in "twilight zone".

Venus--Menzel and Whipple believed Venus clouds composed of water,

along with global ocean (1955); Ross Moore balloon spectroscopy

reports atmospheric water vapor (1959); P.A. Moore believes Venus atmosphere contains CO2, water vapor, and probably

oxygen (1960); James Pickering (1961), Venus' surface might be "...

a rank, steaming jungle surrounding arid, sandy areas ...".

Moon--Crater bands possibly vegetation, Patrick Moore (1953); changing

radial bands and dark spots possible vegetation, Firsoff (1959).

Mars--Spectroscopic evidence for vegetation; Sinton (1957).

Jupiter--Carl Sagan (1961), water ocean below Jupiter's clouds.

IV. The Celestial Holocaust

Ley's "Third Era" of planetary exploration (spaceflight; beginning ca. 1960).

Mercury--

Correct rotation period discovered (nonsynchronous 58.65d; doppler radar, 1965).

Entire planet alternates between baked and frozen (except possibly near poles).

Moon--

Rock and soil samples show that there never was life, not even dead spores

(a possible blow against panspermia).

Venus--

Atmospheric composition determined; not conducive to "life as we know it"

(not to mention sulfuric acid clouds and rain).

Temperature:

Pollack and Sagan estimate surface temperatures between 470-1000 K

(1961, earthbased).

Mariner 2 (flyby Dec. 14, 1962); surface temperature 610-840 K (Owen, 1965).

Venera 4 (descends Oct. 18, 1967); at last transmission reports 22 bars pressure,

277*C (550 K) temperature.

Venera 7 (lands Dec. 15, 1970); reports 90 bars pressure, 748 K temperature.

Mars--

Mariner 4 (flyby July 14, 1965):

Less and less atmosphere; radio occultation 5-7 mb (1965).

Looks like another Moon; video images covering 1 percent of surface give

impression of cratered, barren landscape.

Mariner 7 (flyby Aug. 5, 1969):

Atmosphere 99 percent CO2

Imaged 19 percent of Mars; "jumbled topography" areas suggest permafrost.

Mariner 9 (orbital insertion Nov. 13, 1971):

Images almost entire planet; discovered volcanos, channels implying flowing water in the past.

Viking:

Viking 1 orbital insertion June 19, 1976; Lander touches down in Chryse

Basin July 20, 1976.

Viking 2 orbital insertion Aug. 7, 1976; Lander touches down in Utopia

Sep. 3, 1976.

In situ measurements of atmospheric composition, pressure, temperature;

all discouraging.

Unexpected but ultimately negative (?) results of biology experiments

(Pyrolytic Release, Gas Exchange, Labeled Release).

Summary, ca. 1980--

With the apparent loss of Venus and Mars, arguable that the Solar System has no

life outside Earth.

V. Is There Still Hope for Life?

Mars--

Martian meteorites (e.g., ALH 84001):

Ongoing argument about fossil nanoorganisms.

However, no sign of panspermia spores.

Increasing evidence of subsurface, even recent surface, water.

Europa--

An ocean under the ice?

The one example of space exploration creating a new candidate for life.

Titan--

A primeval Earth?

VI. Solar-System Life in Non-Fiction, Alleged Non-Fiction and Unintentional and

Intentional Fiction

Bring examples of popular astronomy books and text books from different periods; how

do they treat the topic of solar-system life?

Bring (or at least describe) your own favorite stories, novels, and movies about life on the

Moon, Mars, Venus and other places in the Solar System.

Do scientific discoveries (or supposed discoveries) affect fiction?

Cranks and Charlatans--Where do they prefer their aliens to come from?

What did Jules Verne have against solar-system life?

Some writers whose reputations were built in part on solar-system life: Wells, Burroughs,

Heinlein, Bradbury. Any others?

 

Bibliography

A. Plurality of Worlds (First and Second Eras; History).

Arrhenius, Svante (1918). The Destinies of the Stars. tr. by J.E. Fries. New York: G.P.

Putnam's Sons.

Crowe, Michael J. (1986). The Extraterrestrial Life Debate 1750-1900. Cambridge, UK:

Cambridge University Press.

Engdahl, Sylvia Louise (1974). The Planet-Girdled Suns. New York: Atheneum.

Fontenelle, M. de (Bernard Le Bovier) (1990). Conversations on the Plurality of Worlds. tr.

by H.A. Hargreaves. Berkeley: University of California Press. (Orig. pub. as

Entretiens sur la Pluralite des Mondes, 1686.)

Guthke, Karl S. (1990). The Last Frontier: Imagining Other Worlds from the Copernican

Revolution to Modern Science Fiction. tr. by Helen Atkins. Ithaca: Cornell

University Press. (Orig. pub. as Der Mythos der Neuziet, Bern, A. Francke AG

Verlag, 1983.)

Huygens, Christian (1968). The Celestial Worlds Discovered. London: Frank Cass and Co.

Ltd. (Facsimile of English edition of 1698.)

Jones, H. Spencer (1940). Life on Other Worlds. New York: Macmillan (reprinted by

Mentor Books, New York, 1949).

Lear, John (1965). Kepler's Dream. Berkeley: University of California Press. (Contains a

translation of Kepler's Somnium, Sive Astronomica Lunaris by Patricia Frueh

Kirkwood.)

Lowell, Percival (1895). Mars. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

________ (1906). Mars and Its Canals. New York: Macmillan.

________ (1908). Mars as the Abode of Life. New York: Macmillan.

Sheehan, William (1988). Planets & Perception: Telescopic Views and Interpretations,

1609-1909. Tucson: University of Arizona Press.

Wilkins, John (1638). Discovery of a New World in the Moone. fascm. 1973, Delmar, NY:

Scholars' Facsimiles & Reprints.

B. Third-Era Planetary Astronomy (often containing some history).

Asimov, Isaac (1979). Extraterrestrial Civilizations. New York: Crown Publishers, Inc.

Dick, Steven J. (1996). The Biological Universe. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University

Press.

Feinberg, Gerald, and Shapiro, Robert (1980). Life Beyond Earth. New York: William

Morrow and Co.

Hartmann, William K. (1993). Moon & Planets. 3rd ed. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Pub. Co.

Horowitz, Norman H. (1986). To Utopia and Back. New York: W.W. Freeman and Co.

Lemonick, Michael D. (1998). Other Worlds: The Search for Life in the Universe. New

York: Simon & Schuster.

Morrison, David, and Owen, Tobias (1988). The Planetary System. Reading, MA: Addison-

Wesley.

Shklovskii, I.S., and Sagan, Carl (1966). Intelligent Life in the Universe. San Francisco:

Holden-Day, Inc.

Sullivan, Walter (1966). We Are Not Alone. Rev. ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.

C. Books About Science Fiction.

Aldiss, Brian W. (1986). Trillion Year Spree. New York, Avon Books.

Bleiler, Everett F. (1990). Science-Fiction, the Early Years. Kent, Ohio: The Kent State

University Press.

Clute, John (1995). Science Fiction: The Illustrated Encyclopedia. New York: Dorling

Kindersley Publishing, Inc.

Day, Donald B. (1952) Index to the Science Fiction Magazines 1926-1950. Portland, OR:

Perri Press.

Del Rey, Lester (1975). Fantastic Science-Fiction Art 1926-1954. New York: Ballantine

Books. (See pls. 2 [Martians], 24 [Venus], 26 [Neptune], 28 [Callisto], 32 [Venus],

and 39 [Martians].)

Gifford, Denis (1971). Science Fiction Film. London: Studio Vista Ltd.

Lupoff, Richard A. (1976). Barsoom: Edgar Rice Burroughs and the Martian Vision.

Baltimore: The Mirage Press.

Metcalf, Norm (1968). The Index of Science Fiction Magazines 1951-1965. El Cerrito, CA:

J. Ben Stark, Publisher.

Pierce, John J. (1987). Great Themes of Science Fiction. New York: Greenwood Press.

Post, J.B. (1973). An Atlas of Fantasy. Baltimore: The Mirage Press., Inc. (See pp. 165

[Barsoom = Mars], 176 [Amtor = Venus], 180 [Moon], 262 [Mars], 264 [Moon,

Eros, Mars, Mercury, Phobos, Deimos, Neptune, Pallas, Pluto, Saturn, Uranus].)

Willis, Donald C. (1972). Horror and Science Fiction Films: A Checklist. Metuchen, NJ:

The Scarecrow Press, Inc.

________ (1982). Horror and Science Fiction Films II. Metuchen, NJ and London: The

Scarecrow Press, Inc.

________ (1984). Horror and Science Fiction Films III. Metuchen, NJ and London: The

Scarecrow Press, Inc.

________ (1997). Horror and Science Fiction Films IV. Lanham, ND and London: The

Scarecrow Press, Inc.

D. Solar-System Life in Science Fiction Stories and Novels (just a small sample).

Aldiss, Brian W. (1968). All About Venus. New York: Dell Publishing Co., Inc. (Anthology

of essays, articles, and short stories about Venus.)

Arnold, Edwin Lester (1905). Lieut. Gulliver Jones: His Vacation. London: S.C. Brown.

(Repr. by Ace Books in 1964 as Gulliver of Mars.)

Astor, John Jacob (1894). A Journey in Other Worlds. New York: Appleton.

Bradbury, Ray (1950). The Martian Chronicles. Garden City, NY: Doubleday & Co., Inc.

Burroughs, Edgar Rice (1917). A Princess of Mars. Chicago: A.C. McClurg & Co. (First of

the Barsoom novels, followed by: The Gods of Mars [1918]; The Warlord of Mars

[1919]; Thuvia, Maid of Mars [1920]; The Chessmen of Mars [1922]; The Master

Mind of Mars [1928]; A Fighting Man of Mars [1931]; Swords of Mars [1936];

Synthetic Men of Mars [1940]; Llana of Gathol [1948]. )

________ (1926) The Moon Maid. Chicago: A.C. McClurg & Co.

________ (1934) Pirates of Venus. New York: Grosset and Dunlap. (Followed by: Lost on

Venus [1935]; Carson of Venus [1939]; Escape on Venus [1946].)

________ (1964). Tales of Three Planets. New York: Canaveral Press. (Short story

collection.)

________ (1964a). John Carter of Mars. New York: Canaveral Press. (Short story

collection.)

________ (1970). The Wizard of Venus. New York: Ace. (Short story collection.)

Clarke, Arthur C. (1952). Sands of Mars. New York: Gnome Press, Inc.

Cyrano de Begerac, Savinien (1962). Voyages to the Moon and Sun. tr. by Richard

Aldington. New York: Orion Press. (Orig. pub. as Les Estats et Empires de la Lune

et du Soleil in 1657.)

Farley, Ralph Milne (1948). The Radio Man. Los Angeles: Fantasy Publishing Co., Inc.

[Venus]

Godwin, Francis (1638). Man in the Moone. London: John Norton. (facsim. 1972. New

York: De Capo Press.)

Greg, Percy (1880). Across the Zodiac. London: Trubner. Repr. 1974, Westport, Conn.:

Hyperion Press.

Griffith, George (pseud. Griffith-Jones, George Chetwynd) (1901). A Honeymoon in Space.

London: C.A. Pearson. Repr. 1975, New York: Arno Press.

Heinlein, Robert A. (1949). Red Planet. New York: Ace Books.

________ (1961). Stranger in a Strange Land. New York: G.P. Putnam's Sons.

Kuttner, Henry (1950). Fury. New York: Grosset & Dunlap. (Pub. in Astounding in 1947

under the pseud. Lawrence O'Donnell.) [Venus]

Lasswitz, Kurd (1897). Auf Zwei Planeten. Weimar: Emil Felber. (tr. by Hans H. Rudnick

as Two Planets, Carbondale, Il: Southern Illinois University Press.)

Lewis, C.S. (1938). Out of the Silent Planet. London: J. Lane.

________ (1944). Perelandra. [Venus] New York: Macmillan.

Van Vogt, A.E. (1948) The World of Null-A. New York: Simon and Schuster. [Venus locale]

Voltaire (Francois Arouet) (1752). Micromegas. (see; Candide and Other Tales, tr. by

Tobias Smollett, New York: E.P. Dutton, 1937, repr. 1971.)

Weinbaum, Stanley (1934). "A Martian Odyssey." Wonder Stories, April, p. 174. (Repr. in

Silverberg, Robert, ed. [1970] Science Fiction Hall of Fame. New York: Avon.)

Wells, H.G. (1897) "The Crystal Egg." The New Review (Repr. in Knight, Damon, ed.,

[1962] A Century of Science Fiction. New York: Dell Publishing Co., Inc.) [Mars]

________ (1897). The War of the Worlds. (Serialized in Pearson's Magazine, Apr. - Dec.;

book publication in 1898 by William Heinemann, London.)


NCHALADA LIV    NCHALADA Home page    NCHALADA Archive    NCHALADA LVI